The October 2025 Fiscal Monitor report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Nigeria’s general government gross debt as a percentage of GDP would decline steadily over the next five years, reaching 33.8% by 2030.
This positive outlook is inconsistent with recent trends in Nigeria’s total public debt, which continues to trend upwards in absolute terms.
Recent data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) show that total public debt reached a record ₦152.40 trillion as of June 30, 2025, up from ₦149.39 trillion at the end of March 2025—an increase of ₦3.01 trillion, or 2.01 percent, in just three months.
The rising debt stock reflects both additional borrowings and the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on external obligations.
To mitigate this effect and expand fiscal space, the government should prioritise improved revenue mobilisation from both oil and non-oil sources. For the oil sector,
It is crucial to combat pipeline vandalism and oil theft by implementing stringent punitive measures against offenders and to attract investments in modern oil infrastructure to replace obsolete ones.
Furthermore, maintaining strict fiscal discipline by curbing non-essential recurrent expenditures is also key to ensuring sustainable debt levels and long-term economic stability in Nigeria. (Nigeria Economic Update Issue 43)
