ISTANBUL/RIYADH, Aug. 7 (Xinhua) — Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan on Friday signed the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, stipulating that any armed attack against one of the three countries will be considered an attack against them all.
Analysts say the deal could mark a significant step toward closer strategic coordination among the three countries and reshape regional power dynamics amid heightened geopolitical tensions, although its actual impact and the effectiveness of its implementation remain to be seen.
WHAT IS THE AGREEMENT ABOUT?
The agreement was signed by Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif during a summit for joint defense held in the Saudi city of Makkah.
It stipulates that an armed attack on any one of the three countries would be regarded as an attack on all.
However, few details have been made public so far regarding the specific commitments assumed by each country, and it remains unclear to what extent the pact would require them to take concrete military action in defense of one another.
According to a joint statement issued after the summit, the agreement reflects the three countries’ commitment to strengthening their collective security and safeguarding regional peace and stability.
It seeks to bolster collective deterrence against any act of aggression and deepen defense cooperation across all sectors, the statement read.
Rayed Krimly, Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy, said in a social media post that the agreement reflects the depth and longstanding nature of the strategic relations among the three countries, and represents the culmination of detailed negotiations conducted over a number of years. “The agreement does not represent an effort to establish a military axis or a sectarian bloc. Nor is it linked to any nuclear ambitions or arms race, rather it is focused on building sustainable capabilities,” he said.
WHAT IS THE BACKGROUND?
While the three countries have framed the agreement as a reflection of their “longstanding historical ties,” analysts argue that the decision to sign the pact at this particular moment cannot be separated from the shifting geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
The regional security landscape facing the three countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, has become increasingly challenging since the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in February. The kingdom was reportedly targeted several times amid Iran’s retaliatory campaign against U.S. interests.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s already strained ties with Yemen’s Houthi group have sharply deteriorated, as the group has intensified attacks on Saudi targets and declared a ban on Saudi ships transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
To navigate growing geopolitical pressures, Saudi Arabia has pursued a range of measures in recent months.
Last week, the kingdom announced the formation of a multinational maritime defense alliance designed to safeguard vital shipping routes in the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden.
The joint pact should be understood against the backdrop of shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, Baris Doster, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Marmara University, told Xinhua.
Diplomatic rapprochement among Ankara, Riyadh and Islamabad had been developing for some time, but recent developments involving the United States, Israel and Iran accelerated efforts to formalize the cooperation, he said.
In this context, Doster added, the pact was established primarily to “rebalance the regional distribution of weight and influence” among competing regional powers.
WHAT LIES AHEAD?
Despite the strong collective-defense clause, Doster expressed skepticism about the pact’s operational impact.
He said he did not expect the three countries to conduct joint military maneuvers or patrols in sensitive areas such as the Strait of Hormuz, saying such a move could unnecessarily antagonize Tehran.
More broadly, he questioned whether the agreement would evolve into an effective security mechanism. “I do not think it will prove highly effective in practice,” Doster said. “Diplomatic history is full of thousands of treaty texts.”
Furkan Hamit, a regional analyst at the Ankara-based Institute of Strategic Thinking, said that while the pact’s operational details remain unclear, its significance stems in part from the complementary military and economic strengths of the three countries.
Türkiye’s large and experienced military and rapidly developing domestic defense industry, Pakistan’s military experience as well as missile and nuclear capabilities, and Saudi Arabia’s strong financial resources and substantial defense spending could together help turn the partnership into a multifaceted and effective strategic platform, Hamit noted
