The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) September Monthly Oil Market report indicated that Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production (based on direct communication) for August fell by 4.8% (73,000 bpd) from 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) in July to 1.434 million bpd in August 2025.
Furthermore, Nigeria’s oil production was 4.4% below OPEC’s quota of 1.5 million bpd, and 30.3% below its target of 2.06 million bpd.
A Nigeria Economic Update report said these shortfalls show that Nigeria’s oil sector still faces significant challenges, which are likely to result in the country earning less from oil exports than it planned in its budget.
This could further weaken the country’s foreign exchange inflows and exert fiscal pressures on the government’s budget, thereby limiting funding for critical development projects and increasing reliance on borrowing.
To address these challenges and increase oil output, Nigeria should attract investment to rehabilitate and expand its refining and production capacity. Additionally, the government should strengthen security in oil-producing areas to curb theft and pipeline vandalism.
Furthermore, maintaining regulatory oversight and encouraging private sector participation in oil infrastructure could help stabilise production and improve productivity in the sector.
